IMF projected real GDP in Sudan to grow by 3.3% in 2015

Khartoum, Sudan (Capital Markets in Africa): – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected real GDP in Sudan to grow by 3.3% in 2015 and by 3.9% in 2016, relative to a growth rate of 3.4% in 2014, and compared to growth rates of 3.9% and 4.3% in 2015 and 2016, respectively, for oil-importers in the MENA region. It estimated the country’s nominal GDP at $76.2bn in 2015 and at $76.5bn in 2016. It forecast Sudan’s annual average inflation rate at 19% in 2015 and at 10.5% in 2016, relative to an average rate of 37% in 2014. Also, it expected broad money to grow by 16.8% this year and by 15.4% in 2016, compared to a growth rate of 17.1% in 2014.

In parallel, the Fund projected the fiscal deficit to widen from 1% of GDP in 2014 to 1.5% of GDP in 2015 and 1.4% of GDP in 2016. It estimated government revenues to reach 10.2% of GDP in 2015 and 10.6% of GDP in 2016, when excluding grants, down from 11.2% of GDP in 2014; and for total expenditures and
net lending to regress from 12.7% of GDP in 2014 to 12.3% of GDP in 2015 and 12.6% of GDP in 2016.

The IMF expected the government’s gross debt level to reach 78.5% of GDP at the end of 2015 and 74.8% of GDP at end-2016, compared to 74.2% at end-2014. It also forecast total gross external debt to rise from 63.1% of GDP in 2014 to 63.2% of GDP in 2015 and 65.1% of GDP in 2016. Further, the Fund estimated Sudan’s exports of goods & services at $6.2bn in 2015 and at $7bn in 2016 compared to $6.7bn in 2014; and its imports of goods & services to reach $8.3bn in 2015 and $8.9bn in 2016, relative to $9.3bn in 2014.

It forecast the country’s current account balance to post deficits of $3bn in 2015 and $2.7bn in 2016, equivalent to 4% of GDP and 3.6% of GDP, respectively, and relative to a deficit of $3.8bn or 5.1% of GDP in 2014. It expected gross official reserves to rise from $1.6bn at end-2014 to $1.8bn at end-2015 and to $2.2bn at end-2016.